SPECIAL SECTION
Canadian Economic Outlook
September 2, 2010
Compared to retail sales tax, HST is definitely the better tax
It seems that the consensus view regarding the recently introduced harmonized sales tax in British Columbia and Ontario has been negative, primarily on account of the perception that the HST is a tax grab that also increases new house prices.
August 31, 2010
Canada’s second quarter GDP growth lower than expected
Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010’s second quarter was only +2.0% annualized, according to today’s report from Statistics Canada. This was at the low end of the range (+2.0% to +3.0%) expected by most economists.
August 30, 2010
The phrase ‘jobless recovery’ oversimplifies the message
U.S. employment fell by 131,000 in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported. This was less than June’s decline of 221,000, but it was disappointing nonetheless after the substantial month-to-month gains earlier in the year. From January to May, the U.S. picked up 1.0 million jobs.
August 26, 2010
Montreal is approaching 2011 at full speed
As Montreal heads into the second half of 2010, it’s clear that the city must be doing something right. For the past seven months it has consistently exhibited stronger year-over-year job growth than all but two of the 10 largest metro areas in the country.
August 26, 2010
Canadian housing starts will weaken but won’t be infected with U.S. virus
Housing starts in the second half of this year will weaken versus the first half, according to CanaData’s latest forecast. There are five obvious reasons.
August 25, 2010
Have U.S. and Canadian shoppers taken a vow of frugality?
Canadian retail sales were +0.1% this June versus May and +3.8% when compared with June of last year, Statistics Canada reports. The U.S. Census Bureau recorded a 0.4% month-to-month increase in retail sales in July, which yielded a year-over-year gain of 5.5%. The numbers reported for the U.S. are usually a month ahead of Canada’s.
August 24, 2010
Wage settlements in public sector continue to outpace private sector
According to the Ontario Collective Bargaining Review, 2,025 collective agreements were negotiated in 2009.
August 23, 2010
All’s not right in the world of Canadian and U.S. foreign trade
The shapes of the monthly foreign trade curves for both Canada and the U.S. are cause for concern. In Canada’s case, the merchandise trade (as reported by Statistics Canada) has remained near zero for a year and a half.
August 20, 2010
Canada’s Consumer Price Index back on target in July
Canada’s all-items inflation rate in July moved up to +1.8% from +1.0% in June, according to Statistics Canada. The rise was partly due to July 1st harmonized sales tax (HST) introductions in Ontario and B.C., plus a 2% increase in Nova Scotia’s blended sales tax.
August 19, 2010
Strong fundamentals driving Kitchener-Waterloo into 2011
Kitchener, Ont.’s economy is heading into the second half of 2010 in high gear, based on the employment report for July and the building permits statistics for June.
August 18, 2010
U.S. housing market is more dynamic than first appears
To all appearances, the U.S. housing market is moving sideways. That is what several recent data releases suggest. June new home sales increased to 330,000 units from a cyclical low point of only 267,000 units the month before.
August 18, 2010
Infrastructure Stimulus Fund: Better late than never
It has been a challenge to assess the impact on the economy of the Infrastructure Stimulus Fund (ISF), introduced by the federal government in the 2009 budget.
August 17, 2010
Canada’s labour market catches a summer cold from the U.S.
Canada lost 9,000 jobs in July, Statistics Canada recently reported. That was after six months of solid back-to-back increases totaling over 300,000 new jobs in the first half of this year. Relative to most other countries, Canadians have had little to whine about on the jobs front.
August 12, 2010
After a pause, growth in U.S. and Canada should regain momentum
Over the past several weeks, there has been an increase in concern about the health of the U.S. economy.
August 11, 2010
Want a home in Vancouver? Be prepared to spend two-thirds of a million dollars
There is a strong tie-in between consumer confidence and the housing market. Homeowners derive a large measure of their sense of financial worth from the value of the property they live in.
August 10, 2010
Although the housing market is still quite warm, it’s starting to cool
Housing demand in Canada’s six major cities was still quite strong midway through the second quarter, based on the most recent (May) Teranet/National Bank House Price Index.
August 6, 2010
Canada’s foreign trade in need of a boost; U.S. shortfall returning to normal
Canada’s foreign trade position continues to flounder, according to the latest numbers from Statistics Canada. Since the onset of the recession in fall 2008, the nation’s merchandise trade account has been registering as many small deficits as small surpluses.
August 5, 2010
Lumber supply, employment in B.C. will feel mountain pine beetle’s bite
One of the major clouds hanging over British Columbia’s economy and forest products industry is uncertainty about the mountain pine beetle epidemic.
August 4, 2010
Waiting to see if the other shoe drops in Canada
Statistics Canada’s leading indicator index for June recorded a 1.0% gain versus May. This was only a slight pullback from upwardly revised gains of 1.1% in both May and April.
August 3, 2010
Don’t sweat climate change, Nobel Prize-winning physicist says
The construction industry is a major energy consumer. Given recent concerns about the significant potential impact of carbon taxes and/or cap and trade legislation on all energy consumers, it is useful to try and get some perspective on the world’s current “hot” button issue: climate change.
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| ALEX’S ECONOMICS BLOG |

Reed Construction Data Chief Economist Alex Carrick discusses current developments in the North American economic environment with emphasis on the construction industry.
- Canada’s construction starts in a transition phase (August 27, 2010)
- U.S. initial jobless claims rise to half a million again (August 19, 2010)
- It’s been 35 years since institutional construction starts as strong (August 6, 2010)
- More










